I've blogged previously about Israel's capacity to hit Iran. Now comes a report from the Washington Times that claims Israel has the legs to do it. This is probably true, but they overlook a few key points.

First, although they claim the KC-707 could nurse the strike aircraft on the way over, it would have to loiter over Iraqi airspace. A flying gas station makes a very inviting target, so it would not be safe to take it into Iranian airspace. That means the Iraqis would have to answer to their neighbors for letting the Israelis use their airspace, not just letting them penetrate it.

Further, an Israeli airstrike through Iraqi airspace would do serious damage to our credibility with the Iraqis. It would infuriate them, and likely incite more attacks against our men on the ground. We are not well liked, but the Israelis are liked even less. The only question left is, how much do the Iraqis hate the Iranians? If they like them less than the Israelis, a deep strike by Israel could be possible. But I doubt that.

Also, with Israel beating up on Hezbullah in Lebanon, they have their hands full. A deep strike would trigger dangerous reactions from Israel's neighbors, which would mean assets that could have been used in a sustained attack against Iran would have to be allocated to local defense. Even if Israel was lucky and their neighbors don't want Iran to have the bomb - a not entirely unlikely occurrence - the resources would still have to be shared against Hezbullah. That means that a first strike would not easily be followed by a second. That means that anything missed in the first attack would not get hit.

All this points to Iran as the likely instigator of the most recent disturbance (as if we needed more evidence). Iran has probably correctly assumed that Israel or the US was willing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities, and they feared Israel's willingness to act more than the weakened George Bush (thanks to the NY Times and company for that). They figured that if Israel was too busy and the US was too weak, they could proceed with their Tel Aviv Project.

All this means that W must be willing to threaten Iran with whatever force is necessary if they do not respond to the most recent ultimatum.

The mullahs should remember: because of Lend-Lease and Diego Garcia, we can credibly say that we can deliver total destruction in 30 minutes or the next one is free, thanks to Ronald Reagan, Northrup Grumman, and the 509th Bomb Wing.

Further reading:
Global Security info on Israel's Air Force