Something has been bugging me about the President's press conference from last week. To quote from the transcript:

Q Mr. President, if I could follow up, you say diplomacy takes time --

THE PRESIDENT: Yes, it does.

Q -- but it was four years ago that you labeled North Korea a member of the "axis of evil." And since then it's increased its nuclear arsenal, it's abandoned six-party talks and now these missile launches --

THE PRESIDENT: Let me ask you a question. It's increased it's -- that's an interesting statement: "North Korea has increased its nuclear arsenal." Can you verify that?

Q Well, intelligence sources say -- if you can -- if you'd like to dispute that, that's fine.

THE PRESIDENT: No, I'm not going to dispute, I'm just curious.

This is a very curious way of asking the question, no? It's almost as if GWB is hinting that he knows something about North Korea that the press doesn't.

Tell me, what does North Korea have in common with the US, the UK, France, Russia, China, India, and Pakistan? The Conventional Wisdom answer is "a nuclear bomb". But assuming that's true, what sets it apart from those nations?

The NorKs haven't test-detonated it, assuming they have one in the first place. All they have done is claim to have one.

Now, I'm no Henry Kissinger when it comes to foreign policy. Heck, I'm not even Jack Ryan in that regard. But don't you think that the best way to demonstrate your military might is to cook off a nuke, not launch a missile that may or may not work?

I am going to go out on a very thin limb here. I think North Korea doesn't have the bomb, not because they lack the nuclear material (Bill Clinton assured they have enough of that), but because they lack the grey material needed to construct it. Their unsuccessful missile launch is evidence of this. I think GWB has decent intelligence to support this, and doesn't want to launch a war on the presumption of WMD when they aren't there. He got burned before, and doesn't want to touch the hot iron again. Big surprise, since the press would love such a story, and would do their best to ignore the despotism that would be swept away.

On the other hand, GWB realizes that the entire Pacific is at risk if the NorKs do manage to get a nuke attached to a missile that actually works. That's the reason why he's addressing the issue now and not waiting until they have a working rocket. He deserves more praise for trying to solve the problem and risking failure than he is getting, especially since his predecessor was willing to do nothing and not know either the glory of success or the bitterness of defeat.

That being said, if they don't have a nuke, he can push them a lot farther in terms of extracting what he wants from them, without risking major damage to American credibility. But he has to be able to completely trust his intelligence sources, and the past decade and a half of intelligence funding have almost guaranteed that he cannot do so, at least fully.